Hoʻopilikia ke Kaua Hikina Waena i ka ʻOihana Ethylene; Hiki ke hāʻule ka hana honua ma mua o 22 miliona tona i ka makahiki 2026

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Walter Hart, ke Poʻo Honua o Olefins ma S&P Global Energy CERA, ma ka World Petrochemical Conference e hoʻopilikia nui ka pani piha ʻana o ke Kai o Hormuz i nā mea hana petrochemical ma ʻAsia. E pani ʻia nā mea hana keke mahu ma ka Hikina Waena, aʻo nā hale hana ʻē aʻe o ʻAsia e hoʻēmi i kā lākou hana ma muli o ka nele o nā mea hānai.Manaʻo ʻia e hāʻule ka hana ʻana o ka ethylene honua i ka makahiki 2026 ma kahi o 22 miliona tons, like me 12% o ka hoʻopuka ʻana o 2025.

Ua hoʻopilikia nā haunaele koa ma ke Kai Kūʻono i nā lako meaʻai petrochemical. Ma kahi o 29 miliona tone o ka mana ethylene makahiki ma ka ʻāina ʻo ke Kai Kūʻono i kēia manawa, me ka pani piha ʻana ma Iran, Kuwait a me Qatar, a me nā hale hana ʻē aʻe o ka Hikina Waena e holo kokoke ana i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa loa. Ua hōʻemi mua kēia i ka hana ethylene kūloko ma kahi o 15 miliona tone.

Aia ma ka Hikina Waena ma kahi o 35 miliona tone o ka mana ethylene, kahi kokoke i 6 miliona tone aia ma waho o ke Kai Kūʻono Peresia. ʻO kēia ke waiho neiUa hōʻike pololei ʻia he 29 miliona tone o ka mana ethylene ma ke Kai Kūʻonoe hoʻolako i nā hoʻopilikia.

Ua pālahalaha nui nā haʻalulu kaulahao lako ma ʻō aku o ke Kai Kūʻono. Ua koi ka nele o ka naphtha a me ka ʻaila maka i nā hale hana petrochemical ma Asia e hōʻemi i nā helu holo. "Ua hoʻopilikia ʻia ma mua o ka hapalua o ka mana honua," wahi a Hart. Ma waho aʻe o nā 29 miliona tons i hoʻopilikia ʻia ma ke Kai Kūʻono, ua pā ka crunching feedstock ma kahi o 105 miliona tons o ka mana ethylene ma Asia.

Ke hoʻokoe ʻia ka ʻāina ʻo Gulf, ua manaʻo ʻo Hart7–8 miliona tone o ka hana ethylene honuae nalowale ana i kēia makahiki ma muli o nā pilikia o ke kaulahao lako. Hōʻike ka ʻikepili ua hōʻea ka hana ethylene honua i 185 miliona tons i ka makahiki 2025, me ka huina o ka mana ma kahi o 232 miliona tons.

Ua hoʻopilikia nui ke kaua i nā mea hoʻokuʻu aku o ka polyethylene (PE) a me ka ethylene glycol (EG) ma ka Hikina Waena i ʻĀsia, e hoʻopilikia ana i nā kaulahao lako no nā polyolefins, polyester a me PET.

Manaʻo ʻia e ulu ka noi ethylene no ka wā lōʻihi, ʻoiai ma kahi wikiwiki lohi. Manaʻo ʻo Hart ʻaʻole e hoʻōla piha ʻia nā helu hana a me nā palena waiwai a hiki i ka hoʻomaka a i waena o nā makahiki 2030, i ka wā e loaʻa ai ke koi piʻi me nā hoʻohui mana hou.